CHART: Global smartphone market forecast to recover in 2024 after a 2-year decline
Android leads 2024 growth with 7.6% gains, while iOS grows modestly at 0.4%.
- Global smartphone shipments will grow 6.2% YoY in 2024 to reach 1.24 billion.
- Smartphone growth is projected at just 2.6% CAGR (2023-2028), weighed down by market saturation and longer refresh cycles.
- GenAI phones are forecasted to reach 70% of the market by 2028, moving down from premium to affordable segments.
After two years of sharp declines, the global smartphone market is forecast to rebound in 2024, with shipments expected to grow 6.2% year-over-year to 1.24 billion units, according to IDC.
This recovery in the year was driven by pent-up demand for upgrades.
The report points to Android devices driving 2024’s recovery with 7.6% growth, fueled by strong performance in emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia. Apple’s iOS, by contrast, will see a modest 0.4% growth as it faces challenges in key markets like China and the US. The tables are expected to turn in 2025, with iOS projected to grow at 3.1%, surpassing Android’s 1.7%, bolstered by innovations in premium segments.
Meanwhile, market analysts warn that the momentum in 2024 may be short-lived. They predict growth will slow to a modest 2.6% CAGR through 2028, hindered by longer upgrade cycles, market saturation, and a booming second-hand smartphone market.
