Global smartphone market set for continued growth in 2025—but what’s driving it?
Even in a saturated market, there’s still room for growth.
For a product nearly everyone already owns, smartphones keep selling. Although, the smartphone market isn’t booming like it once was, but it’s far from stagnant.
IDC projects that this continued smartphone demand is expected to drive global shipments to 1.26 billion units, a 2.3% increase over last year. That follows a 6.1% jump in 2024, showing the industry is still rebounding—just at a steadier pace.
But what’s behind this continued momentum?
One of the biggest factors is China’s resurgent Android market, where government subsidies and pent-up demand for upgrades have reversed years of decline. Android is set to grow 40% faster than iOS in 2025, with 5.6% growth in China alone. This boost is expected to primarily benefit brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, which have struggled in recent years but are now regaining traction. Meanwhile, Apple is feeling the pressure—iOS shipments in China are forecasted to decline by 1.9%, a reflection of both economic challenges and intensifying local competition.
Outside of China, though, Apple remains strong, with 1.8% global growth fueled by gains in the U.S., India (+18%), and Indonesia (+9%). The introduction of Apple Intelligence and the mid-tier iPhone 16E is expected to sustain demand while keeping average selling prices (ASPs) high. Apple may only account for 19% of total smartphone shipments, but in 2025, it’s projected to capture 45% of total market value—a testament to its dominance in the premium segment.
The U.S. market, meanwhile, is expected to grow 3.3% in 2025, despite the impact of new 10% tariffs on Chinese-made smartphones. Normally, price hikes would dampen demand, but most U.S. consumers purchase their phones through carrier instalment plans and trade-in programs, making upfront price increases less of a deterrent.
Apart from sales volume, the global smartphone ASPs are expected to rise slightly to $434 in 2025, driven by the continued demand for high-end models. But, over the next few years, prices are expected to gradually decline to $424 by 2029, reflecting a longer upgrade cycle and a balance between affordability and premium features.
The industry may not be experiencing double-digit growth anymore, but the drivers behind the 2025 forecast, notably China’s Android recovery highlight that smartphones are still evolving.
